Raiffeisen Bank International AG – Leading Bank in Central and Eastern Europe

Brief summary for investors: Raiffeisen Bank International AG (RBI) is an Austrian banking group focused on Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe. With a network of over 1,850 branches, it is one of the key banks in the region.

Development The share price showed a clear upward trend from 2020 to the end of 2021, driven by the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and strong financial results (2021: EPS €1.04). Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to a dramatic drop in the share price from over €26 to below €11, as RBI was considered particularly risky due to its significant presence in Russia. Since then, the share price has recovered, supported by robust annual results (2022: EPS €2.76; 2023: EPS €1.74) and a strategic realignment. However, the latest quarterly data shows extreme volatility, with strong earnings (Q1/25: EPS €0.54) and massive losses (Q2/25: EPS -€0.42), indicating significant one-off effects, possibly related to the Russia exposure.

Opportunities:

• Regional Positioning: The strong market position in the growth markets of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) remains a long-term value driver.
• Operating Strength: Despite the recent losses, the high revenues of recent years demonstrate the fundamental profitability of the core business, excluding one-off effects.
• Value Appreciation: The sustained share price increase until September 2025 (€28.80) indicates growing market confidence in the resolution of the Russia issue and the future prospects.

Risks:

• Geopolitical Risk: The continued presence in Russia represents the largest single risk and poses the potential for further write-downs and operational constraints.
• Financial Volatility: The latest quarterly figures (significantly negative free cash flow, ROE of -2.6%) demonstrate continued earnings instability and a high dependence on special items.
• Cyclical Dependence: As a bank, RBI is vulnerable to economic downturns in its home markets, which could dampen credit demand and increase loan default rates.

Additional Notes: The extremely high leverage ratio (debt-to-equity of 8.6) is typical for a credit institution, as it primarily reflects customer deposits and liabilities, and should not be equated with the leverage of an industrial company. The low current ratio is also typical for the industry.

Conclusion: RBI remains a high-risk, high-volatility stock, closely linked to geopolitical developments in Eastern Europe. While its core operating business in the CEE region continues to appear profitable and promising, the short-term risks from its exposure to Russia outweigh these risks. The recent losses in Q2/2025 demonstrate that this process is not yet complete. The current valuation could represent an opportunity for risk-conscious investors, but conservative investors should wait until the situation stabilizes.

Read full AI analysis